WI: United States Military Under a 1976 Reagan Victory

Discussion in 'History After 1900' started by Delta Force, Sep 20, 2018.

  1. Delta Force

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    The 1976 United States presidential election between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter was one of the closest in history, as was the 1976 Republican National Convention between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. It's quite possible that Ronald Reagan could have won both contests and gone on to be elected president in 1976, taking office in early 1977. Such an early election would have interesting repercussions in many areas, but the purposes of this discussion lets limit things to what the Reagan Administration might do with the military in terms of procurement and possible military actions.

    Procurement

    One decision that Reagan would have to make is on what to do with the strategic weapons program. In early 1976 both the silo based Peacekeeper missile program and the Safeguard anti-ballistic missile program were cancelled due to their perceived vulnerability. It seems likely that the Peacekeeper would be revived by Reagan in order to close the gap with Soviet superheavy launch vehicles such as R-36/SS-18 Satan missile, perhaps alongside the anti-ballistic missile program. Both systems could even be deployed alongside each other near the Stanley R. Mickelsen Safeguard Complex in North Dakota, as silo deployment with anti-ballistic missile defense was one deployment option.

    Reagan will also have to make a decision on the B-1 bomber. Historically it was cancelled by Carter in early 1977 because its planned high speed/high altitude flight profile made it vulnerable to Soviet air defenses. Carter decided to instead place an increased focus on ballistic missiles, air launched cruise missiles, and a secret stealth bomber program. The new strategic focus was considered to be more of a threat than continuing the B-1A program, but it was politically controversial with Republicans and the defense establishment. It seems likely that the aircraft would be redesigned for a more low altitude role as with the historical B-1B, although there are interesting possibilities if the funding that would have been allocated to the B-1 is spent elsewhere. For example, upgraded B-52 bombers could have similar capabilities as the B-1, and political support could be gained by spreading the upgrade work throughout the country and keeping more bomber units in service.

    The Navy's strategic programs are likely to continue as planned, with the Ohio class ballistic missile submarines and Trident I missiles joining the fleet, older ballistic missile submarines capable of carrying Poseidon being retrofitted with them being equipped with them, and older submarines capable of carrying only the Polaris being retired.

    There are some interesting options for the conventional forces of the United States Navy, as it was looking for a new way to go with the last of the World War II era ships leaving service. Chief of Naval Operations Elmo Zumwalt was pushing for his High-Low concept of purchasing smaller conventionally powered ships to maintain a large fleet. His plans included proposals such as the Aircraft Carrier (Medium), Sea Control Ship, Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, and Pegasus class hydrofoils. At the same time Director of Naval Reactors Hyman G. Rickover was pushing for increased nuclearization of the Navy, including more Nimitz class aircraft carriers and the Strike Cruiser. Reagan was in favor of some of the more expensive ship concepts, but given his support for a large Navy perhaps he might be willing to support some of Zumwalt's proposals.

    Despite being just a few years earlier, a 1976 Reagan victory would see some more older warships available for potential use in naval expansion plans. These would include older guided missile cruisers such as the Boston class, Galveston class, Providence class, and Albany class. There were also some remaining World War II era warships such as the USS Franklin D. Roosevelt, several Essex class aircraft carriers, the Iowa class battleships, Des Moines class heavy cruisers, the USS Saint Paul, and various destroyer classes.

    The Reagan Administration might be interested in the USS Franklin D. Roosevelt and some of the cruisers. The Franklin D. Roosevelt was in poor condition by the 1970s and unable to operate some larger aircraft (as were the other ships of the Midway class), but it likely could be overhauled and returned to service faster and for less cost than building a new aircraft carrier. It would thus be the only option to quickly and easily add a fleet carrier to the Navy. The cruisers might be of interest to help ward off the perceived cruiser gap, and its worth noting that the Des Moines class cruisers were historically considered and approved for reactivation during the 1980s, although they were never funded. Even some of the older guided missile cruisers and destroyers might be considered practical for modernization if the New Threat Upgrade program is started earlier.

    The Army was beginning major new programs too. New attack helicopter and main battle tank prototypes were undergoing testing in 1976, while Congress was questioning the procurement of what would become the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. During the tank testing program consideration was given to adopting a diesel engine and a 120 mm cannon, although neither was adopted at the time (although the 120 mm cannon was eventually adopted in 1985 for the M1A1 Abrams).

    Possible Military Actions

    There would be tensions with Panama due to Reagan's refusal to consider transferring the Panama Canal Zone to Panama. There may even be war with Panama if Omar Torrijos goes through with his threat to blow up the Canal if it isn't transferred.

    The internal tensions that led to the collapse of Imperial Iran are unlikely to change much, which means that Reagan may have to deal with the effects towards the end of his first term.

    There were low level conflicts with Libya throughout the 1970s, although they escalated when Reagan became President and ramped up freedom of navigation patrols in the Gulf of Sidra. The United States and its allies would probably come into conflict with Libya sooner in a 1976 Reagan victory scenario.
     
    #1 Delta Force, Sep 20, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2018

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