What if Little Boy were to explode on or over Tinian Island during a handling accident or failed takeoff or emergency landing of the Enola Gay? How much would the 509th Composite Air Group and the nuclear strike capabilities of the USAAF have been impacted? Would Operation Downfall have gone ahead as planned? Interesting Reading: “We all aged ten years until the plane cleared the island.”
True, but the question is how long it would delay it by. Many military and scientific personnel important to the program would have been killed in the explosion, as well as many B-29 bombers with the Silverplate modifications required to carry atomic bombs. Tinian was one of the largest air bases in the world at that time, so it would have a major impact on conventional B-29 operations (bombing and mining) too.